2025 Oscars Rundown: Hot Takes & Popular Opinions
As far as Oscar races go, the 2025 show is one of the most unpredictable yet. The 97th Academy Awards will be taking place in Los Angeles on Sunday, March 2, and the only thing prognosticators can agree on is that it’s still anybody’s game.
While Emilia Pérez leads the way with 13 nominations, The Brutalist and Wicked scored 10, and Conclave and A Complete Unknown are at eight, most would agree there is no clear frontrunner. The wild thing is that each of these films was predicted to sweep at one point during this award season. But as the big day approaches, the pendulum continues to swing, leaving only one popular opinion on the table – all bets are on Conan O’Brien to win best host.
In my opinion, Emilia Pérez and Wicked are no longer contenders for Best Picture. Two of the most heavily favorited films of the season, both of which were expected to win big at the Oscars this year, seem more likely than ever to only walk away with below-the-line accolades – mostly. While the Netflix film helmed by Jacques Audiard initially appeared to be dominating the season and even won Best Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes in early January, Karla Sofía Gascón’s shocking tweets that surfaced in late January seem to have cemented the film’s position in the race. Out of its 13 nods, the only ones that seem like a lock are “El Mal” for Best Original Song and Zoe Saldaña for Best Supporting Actress. Even the once-secure International Feature recognition appears to have flipped in favor of Brazil’s I’m Still Here. This would be a delightful win, considering Fernanda Torres is not likely to beat out Demi Moore for Actress in a Leading Role. Mubi’s The Substance has propelled Moore into the top spot and opened the door for the film in other categories, potentially Makeup and Hairstyling and Coralie Fargeat for Best Director.
While The Substance has picked up momentum, Wicked seems to have lost steam. Before the film’s release, the musical comedy was predicted to be the one to watch all season. Early on, it garnered recognition at award shows like the Astras. With Jon M. Chu not receiving a nod for Best Director and no screenplay nomination for the film at the Oscars, Best Picture seems like an impossible feat. While Cynthia Erivo is up for Actress in a Leading Role and Ariana Grande for Actress in a Supporting Role, and they both give incredible performances, Wicked has consistently underperformed this season, leaving its best options for wins in categories such as the above-mentioned Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design (the latter which could even see The Brutalist succeed). It is possible that voters are banking on a triumphant sequel to show their praise. Possible. But doubtful.
If you look at the entirety of this award season (taking Emilia Pérez and Wicked out of the running), Conclave, The Brutalist, Anora, A Real Pain and The Substance could all split the difference. The Brutalist made a statement at the Golden Globes, taking Best Picture, Adrien Brody for Best Actor in a Motion Picture, and Brady Corbet for Best Director. BAFTA and the SAG Awards made Conclave the film frontrunner, while Critics’ Choice, DGA, and PGA favorites went to Anora. In any world, it is possible to see Best Picture and Best Director go to any of the above. I think A Real Pain will win Jesse Eisenberg Original Screenplay and Kieran Culkin Actor in a Supporting Role.
The real questions I ask myself now are: Will Anora prove that slow and steady wins the race? Will Timothée Chalamet pull another shocker like he did at the SAG Awards when he took home top honors for Male Actor in a Leading Role for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown? Will The Brutalist be this year’s Oppenheimer? Will Conclave actually be the one to beat? Or will The Substance be the little indie that could? A win wouldsend a message to Hollywood that a body horror film turned away by Universal Pictures, only to be distributed by an arthouse platform like Mubi, can prevail over a big-budget phenomenon. And if that’s the case, if independent films are where it’s at this year, where does that leave other prospects, such as Nickel Boys or the early award season favorite, Anora?
There really are no guarantees when it comes to the 97th Academy Awards. Who will win is anybody’s guess. My thoughts on who will take home the Oscar toggle back and forth like a top-tier tennis match. The films of 2024 are all worthy of honors, having risen from the ground after a Covid lockdown and a nearly year-long strike. It’s a reminder that art and entertainment are wonderful things to celebrate, no matter who wins what. At least we’re all on Team Coco.
Watch the 2025 Oscars live on ABC and Hulu. The show begins at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT.
My predicted winners. As of now:
Actor in a Supporting Role
- Yura Borisov in Anora
- Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
- Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pearce in The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice
Actress in a Supporting Role
- Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown
- Ariana Grande in Wicked
- Felicity Jones in The Brutalist
- Isabella Rossellini in Conclave
- Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez
Costume Design
- A Complete Unknown – Arianne Phillips
- Conclave – Lisy Cristl
- Gladiator II – Janty Yates and David Crossman
- Nosferatu – Linda Muir
- Wicked – Paul Tazewell
Makeup and Hairstyling
- A Different Man – Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado
- Emilia Pérez – Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Cristophe Spadaccini
- Nosferatu – David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton
- The Substance – Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli
- Wicked – Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth
Music (Original Score)
- The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg
- Conclave – Volker Bertlemann
- Emilia Pérez– Clément Ducol and Camille
- Wicked – John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
- The Wild Robot – Kris Bowers
Live Action Short Film
- A Lien – Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz
- Anuja – Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai
- I’m Not a Robot – Victoria Warmerdam and Trenz
- The Last Ranger – Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw
- The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent – Nebojsa Slijepcevic and Daniel Pek
Animated Short Film
- Beautiful Men – Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande
- In The Shadow of the Cypress – Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi
- Magic Candies – Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio
- Wander to Wonder – Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper
- Yuck! – Loic Espuche and Juliette Marquet
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
- A Complete Unknown – screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
- Conclave – screenplay by Peter Straughan
- Emilia Pérez – screenplay by Jacques Audiard; in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Lea Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
- Nickel Boys – screenplay by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
- Sing Sing – screenplay by Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley; story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
Writing (Original Screenplay)
- Anora – written by Sean Baker
- The Brutalist – written by Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
- A Real Pain – written by Jesse Eisenberg
- September 5 – written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; co-written by Alex David
- The Substance – written by Coralie Fargeat
Music (Original Song)
- “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez – music by Clément Ducol and Camille; lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard
- “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight – music and lyric by Diane Warren
- “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing – music and lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada
- “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez – music and lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol
- “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late – music and lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin
Documentary Feature Film
- Black Box Diaries – Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari and Hanna Aqvilin
- No Other Land – Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham
- Porcelain War – Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska and Paula DuPré Pesmen
- Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat – Johan Grimonperez, Daan Milius and Rémi Grellety
- Sugarcane – Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn
Documentary Short
- Death by Numbers – Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard
- I Am Ready, Warden – Smriti Mundhra and Mya Gnyp
- Incident – Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven
- Instruments of a Beating Heart – Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari
- The Only Girl in the Orchestra – Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington
International Feature Film
- I’m Still Here – Brazil
- The Girl with the Needle – Denmark
- Emilia Pérez – France
- The Seed of the Sacred Fig – Germany
- Flow – Latvia
Animated Feature Film
- Flow – Gints Zilbalodis, Matss Kaa, Ron Dyens and Gregory Zalcman
- Inside Out 2 – Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen
- Memoir of a Snail – Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney
- Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl – Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham and Richard Beek
- The Wild Robot – Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann
Production Design
- The Brutalist – production design by Judy Becker; set decoration by Patricia Cuccia
- Conclave – production design by Suzie Davies; set decoration by Cynthia Sleiter
- Dune: Part Two – production design by Patrice Vermette; set decoration by Shane Vieau
- Nosferatu – production design by Craig Lathrop; set decoration by Beatrice Brendtnerovà
- Wicked – production design by Nathan Crowley; set decoration by Lee Sandales
Film Editing
- Anora – Sean Baker
- The Brutalist – Dávid Jancsó
- Conclave – Nick Emerson
- Emilia Pérez – Juliette Welfing
- Wicked – Myron Kerstein
Sound
- A Complete Unknown – Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco
- Dune: Part Two – Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill
- Emilia Pérez – Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta
- Wicked – Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis
- The Wild Robot – Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts
Visual Effects
- Alien: Romulus – Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulvada-Fauser, Daniel Macain and Shane Mahan
- Better Man – Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubs
- Dune: Part Two – Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes – Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke
- Wicked – Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shrik and Paul Corbould
Cinematography
- The Brutalist – Lol Crawley
- Dune: Part Two – Greig Fraser
- Emilia Pérez – Paul Guilhaume
- Maria – Ed Lachman
- Nosferatu – Jarin Blaschke
Actor in a Leading Role
- Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo in Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes in Conclave
- Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice
Actress in a Leading Role
- Cynthia Erivo in Wicked
- Karla Sofía Gascón in Emilia Pérez
- Mikey Madison in Anora
- Demi Moore in The Substance
- Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here
Best Director
- Anora – Sean Baker
- The Brutalist – Brady Corbet
- A Complete Unknown – James Mangold
- Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard
- The Substance – Coralie Fargeat
Best Picture
- Anora – Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers
- The Brutalist – Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers
- A Complete Unknown – Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman, Producers
- Conclave – Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, Producers
- Dune: Part Two – Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, Producers
- Emilia Pérez – Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers
- I’m Still Here – Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers
- Nickel Boys – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers
- The Substance – Coralie Fargeat and Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner, Producers
- Wicked – Marc Platt, Producer
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Sari Cohen is an entertainment journalist based in LA. She has covered TV and movies for years, writing for popular sites such as Screen Rant and Cracked, music for AXS, and fashion for INLOVE Magazine. You can currently watch her celebrity interviews on Hollywood First Look, Awards Buzz, or here with Popternative. She loves people, puns, and pizza. In that order.
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